The last thirty days – our forward planning horizon at the end of April 2020 – have gone according to plan. We are now fully into the ‘chronic’ phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, and will remain here until the widespread distribution of an effective vaccine.
Children are returning to school here in New South Wales, and will soon follow throughout Australia. Retail and hospitality venues have begun a cautious reopening. Simultaneously, we hold our breath anticipating a potential ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 infections that could tip the horizon upwards, into an exponential curve, dramatically foreshortening our capacity to plan for the future.
Our good fortune – together with continuing efforts to maintaining social distancing and strong hygiene practices – has seen the forward planning horizon expand in Australia from thirty days to thirty weeks, as exemplified by the return of both the NRL and AFL seasons, which will now run through most of the rest of the calendar year, confirming that businesses can make plans through the rest of 2020 with an acceptable degree of risk.
The June 2020 report identifies trends that will strongly influence business and individual behavior through the rest of the year.
Read the full June 2020 Pesce Horizons Report (PDF) here.
As we enter the long, chronic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic Australians and New Zealanders find themselves confronted by the paradox of success: we succeeded in flattening the curve, keeping the infection under control, saving thousands of lives, our health care system, and much else besides.
But now what? Can we escape our sterile bubble of success?
Read the full article in the June 2020 issue of CFO Magazine here.
As parts of the world begin to emerge on the far side of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the forward planning horizon has expanded – from just hours in March, gradually growing to reach whole days by mid-April; now, at the start of May 2020, it becomes possible to plan for the next month with an acceptable degree of risk. Within this thirty-day forward planning horizon we can identify expectations, hopes, and risks, explored below.
Read the full May 2020 Pesce Horizons Report (PDF) here.
The world passed through more change in March 2020 than in the whole of the rest of the 21st century. As we struggle to grasp how much things have changed – and how much more change we’ve yet to experience – it may be good to have a think about the future — as a futurist might.
Read the entire article in the April 2020 issue of CFO Magazine here.